Analysis of confinement in southern Bolivar: Risk factors and social vulnerability (2022-2025)

Abstract

We analyzed the dynamics of confinement in southern Bolívar between 2022 and 2025, focusing on risk factors and social vulnerability in the Magdalena Medio and Loba ZODES (Zones of Economic and Social Development). Using a descriptive quantitative methodological approach that compares data from OCHA (Office of the Coordinator for the Coordination of Human Rights and Citizen Participation), UARIV (Unit for Comprehensive Reparation and Assistance to Victims), and requests to local authorities, we argue that confinement is not a collateral effect, but rather a strategy of territorial control and coercive governance employed by illegal armed groups to monopolize the civilian population and sustain illicit extractive economies. The study identifies that the Magdalena Medio ZODES is contested by the ELN (National Liberation Army), FARC dissidents, and the ELN for control of the Serranía de San Lucas mountain range and its mining corridors. In the Loba ZODES, the use of antipersonnel mines, explosive drones, and threats against social leaders consolidate confinement as a mechanism for controlling drug trafficking and extortion routes.