Risk factors and vulnerability contexts in forced recruitment in southern bolivar during the period 2022-2025

Abstract

Forced recruitment constitutes one of the most serious violations of human dignity and fundamental rights in territories affected by the Colombian armed conflict, due to its impact on social, family, and community dynamics. In this context, this research poses the central question: how do vulnerability indices associated with socioeconomic problems, state absence, and territorial risk scenarios influence forced recruitment dynamics in communities in southern Bolívar during the period 2022-2025? To answer this question, the general objective was to analyze the impact of these vulnerability factors on forced recruitment dynamics in the Magdalena Medio and Loba Special Economic Development Zones (ZODES). The specific objectives were to identify the main risk factors, compare the dynamics of the phenomenon between the two subregions, and describe the level of impact of these factors on the increase in forced recruitment.

The research was conducted from a socio-legal perspective with a quantitative approach, based on the analysis of official data from the Single Registry of Victims, early warnings from the Ombudsman's Office, OCHA, and other state entities. Using a deductive method and descriptive and inferential statistics, it was shown that poverty, precarious employment, geographic isolation, illicit economies, and weak institutional presence have contributed to the strengthening of illegal armed groups and the increase in forced recruitment in southern Bolívar. Therefore, promoting strategies that foster education, access to decent employment, and greater state intervention are essential to reducing vulnerability factors and addressing this social problem.