Simulation for the evaluation of financial risk in investment projects for msmes in Colombia

Abstract

The objective of this study was to develop a Simulation Model to measure the financial risk levels of MSMEs in Colombia. For this, a systematic and detailed process was followed by means of which it was possible to structure an adjusted model for MSMEs, allowing the simulation of risk scenarios from the moment of investment to the liquidation of the venture. The philosophy of Unified Rational Process, Guiding Methodology of the Unified Modeling Language, was adopted. It was based on a theoretical review of risk analysis and financial evaluation methodologies for projects, the variables to be considered in the model were determined; Variable type validations were performed with the Microsoft Excel data analysis add-in and the review was completed with Risk Simulator software. Following this, the existing methods and tools on the market were analyzed, with the intention of corroborating selected variables and methods. The model was developed which was tested by means of an applied case. It was found that Microsoft Excel® is one of the most used tools in the field of project management; In addition, it can be incorporated in the form of a Risk Simulator and Crystal Ball complement that offer a range of analyzes within which risk is found. The Beta application with which the proposed structure was validated partially makes up for the lack of technical and academic knowledge, since the data entry presents pre-established fields. In the academic environment, the use of robust simulators that allow investment risk assessment both in project formulation and evaluation courses as well as in the information search and analysis processes carried out by business consultancies and / or entrepreneurship units create a articulation of teaching-learning processes to the problems faced by MSMEs in a real environment.